The red rock market is showing a nuanced story for year-round residents as fall 2026 data from September and October reveals distinct trends across local real estate markets. While the City of Sedona (86336) saw inventory drop and prices recover, the Village of Oak Creek (86351) experienced an increase in available homes, signaling different market conditions for buyers and sellers.
In the City of Sedona, covering the 86336 zip code, average sales prices rebounded in September to $1.30 million. This marked a recovery from a summer dip experienced in July and August, when prices were around $1.16 million. This price movement follows a typical seasonal pattern, with prices having peaked around $1.58 million in May and June before a summer lull and subsequent resurgence. More significantly, inventory levels saw a sharp decrease in September, settling at 5.30 months of supply, down from 6.79 months in the prior period. This shift repositioned the market from what was recently considered buyer’s market territory to the seller side of balanced. Although the number of properties sold was down 13% year-over-year, the sale-to-list ratio remained firm at 96.7%, indicating that buyers currently active in the market are serious and making offers very close to asking prices. Year-to-date through October, the average sales price for 86336 is tracking at $1.32 million, with the price per square foot at $539 for the month, suggesting a healthy market despite a lower sales volume compared to the previous year.
The Village of Oak Creek, encompassing the 86351 zip code, presented a contrasting scenario. For most of 2026, the Village had been characterized by a tighter market with fewer available homes and more activity at lower price points. However, this trend inverted in October. The most recent market snapshot showed 7.13 months of supply in 86351, which crossed above the six-month threshold typically used to define a balanced market, thereby entering buyer’s territory. Simultaneously, average sales prices in the Village decreased to $869,000, representing a 34% drop from the previous period. This price adjustment is partly attributed to the specific mix of transactions that closed, as a few higher-end sales can significantly skew averages in a month with only about 15 transactions. Despite this, the increase in inventory is considered a real and meaningful change. Interestingly, even with more available homes, the sale-to-list ratio in the Village actually improved to 99.0% during this period. This suggests that buyers are still willing to pay nearly full asking price for well-valued homes, indicating that the market’s softness is not a sign of panic but rather an adjustment following a very busy summer that saw sales rise 83% year-over-year. For prospective buyers focusing on the Village, this period could offer a window of opportunity with increased choices and potentially more motivated sellers, though accurately priced homes still command full-price offers.
In a broader context, statewide Arizona’s September housing report indicated 41,949 listings, a 9.4% year-over-year decrease in sales, and a median sales price of $430,995. However, the Sedona area market continues to operate in a "completely different stratosphere" compared to these broader state trends. Locally, Coldwell Banker Realty leads the Sedona and Verde Valley market year-to-date through October, with 442.5 sides and over $266 million in volume, accounting for more than 14% of the market by both transaction count and dollar volume. The coming 60 days are typically characterized by motivated buyers looking to complete transactions before the holidays or the new year. For sellers, this period suggests maintaining a firm stance on pricing. For buyers, particularly those interested in the Village of Oak Creek, the current inventory data warrants careful consideration.